Research Document: NESG 2022 Q3 GDP Alert November 2022


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Posted Sat, Nov 26, 2022 2:25 PM

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The Nigerian economy expanded by 2.3 percent in 2022 Q3 amidst monetary tightening
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Nigerian economy grew by 2.3 percent (year-on-year) in 2022Q3. This represents a slowdown relative to an economic expansion of 3.5 percent recorded in 2022 Q2 (see Figure 1 in the attached document). The growth drag is coming at a time when the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resumed a tight monetary policy stance. The MPC hiked the monetary policy rate (MPR) by 500 basis points to 16.5 percent between May and November 2022, aimed at reining in the unabated inflationary pressures.

However, on a quarterly basis, the economy grew faster by 9.7 percent in 2022 Q3 relative to a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4 percent in 2022 Q2. In the first three quarters of 2022, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged 3 percent, compared with an average growth of 3.2 percent in the corresponding period of 2021. In nominal terms, the size of the economy in 2022Q3 stood at N52.3 trillion (US$117.8 billion).


The non-oil sector drove sustained economic growth, as the oil sector remained in contraction
Accounting for 94.3 percent of the total real GDP, the non-oil sector expanded by 4.3 percent (year-on-year) in 2022Q3, representing a slowdown compared with a 4.8 percent growth in 2022Q2 (see Figure 2). In the first three quarters of 2022, the non-oil sector grew by 5 percent, representing an improvement compared with an average growth of 3.2 percent in the corresponding period of 2021. The growth of the non-oil sector reflected the sustained growth posted by activity sectors, including Agriculture, Construction, Information & Communications Technology (ICT), Real Estate and Finance, among others.

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